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Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Is Bitcoin dead?

Over the span of just ten days, from January 7th, 2018 to January 17th, 2018, total cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by almost 50% - from $830 billions all time high to $434 billions. This must surely be the prophesied death of cryptocurrencies! Jamie Dimon must have been right all along! Is it true? Is Bitcoin dying? TLDR: No. Read more to find out why cryptocurrencies will be alive and well and will conquer new all time highs in 2018.

Thumb screen shot 2018 01 17 at 9.39.47 am

Every financial expert feels the urge to express themselves and explain the recent correction. The usual culprits in such revelations are either the omnipresent Koreans that did something bad again or the almighty state regulations killing the market. Most of those experts have heard the word bitcoin for the first time in their lives six months ago so take their explanations with a grain of salt. We at Rados only dare to offer our explanations from a position of historical analysis.

In our Telegram chat Rados member jorijnsmit has brought the following information to our attention. Take a look at this picture:
Indeed, for four straight years we see the same seasonal pattern. First we have a bullish December, with bitcoin prices growing steadily in the direction of the moon. And then mid-January, around three weeks before the Lunar New Year, the prices suddenly collapse and then slowly grow back to previous levels by the end of February.
This is to be expected. Chinese and Korean markets dominate the western exchanges by volume. Most cryptocurrency investors, at least at this time, invest in cryptocurrencies that are assets, not businesses. While traditional businesses usually boom around holidays due to increased sales, and it's thus foolish to sell such stock, in cryptocurrency world you can just always buy back what you sold later if you believe in the long term potential.
Yes, our dear reader, we know that Bitcoin is important! But if there is one thing that's more important than Bitcoin - it's family. So let's excuse our asian friends for dumping their gains on the market in order to buy gifts and travel to see their loved ones. In fact, Lunar New Year is the cause for the largest annual human migration. Almost three billion trips have been made last January in China alone.

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